Photo by Fahrul Razi on Unsplash
It sounds like science fiction: only 1 in 5 adults having a job by the 2040s. But that’s exactly what leading AI researchers and economists believe is likely. According to a 2022 study by Katja Grace and other experts, there’s about an 80 to 85% chance that paid employment will shrink to just 20% of the population in the next two decades.
That’s not just a career trend. It’s a fundamental shift in how society works. And it’s raising big, messy questions: How will people survive when machines do most of the work? What does “contribution” mean if you’re not getting a paycheck? And who gets to own all that automated infrastructure in the first place?
Let’s break this down — because the future of work might not involve work at all.
How Did We Get Here? (And Why Faster Than Expected)
Tech has always made some jobs obsolete. But this time it’s different. Instead of replacing a single role or industry, artificial intelligence and robotics are now set to automate knowledge work, manual labor, and everything in between.
Think self-driving trucks, AI legal assistants, automated medical diagnostics. By the early 2030s, many of the jobs that currently take up 40+ hours of our week might simply… not exist anymore.
That’s why economists like Daniel Susskind (author of A World Without Work) and Martin Ford (Rule of the Robots) aren’t just throwing up warning flags. They’re asking: if machines take over the bulk of labor, what exactly are people supposed to do all day?
The Post-Work World Is Already Taking Shape
Photo by Simon Kadula on Unsplash
Picture a society where your survival isn’t tied to your ability to earn a paycheck. That’s where ideas like Universal Basic Income (UBI) come in.
According to economist Karl Widerquist, we’re likely to see large-scale UBI programs roll out by the early 2030s. These would provide everyone—regardless of employment status—with a regular cash payment. No job hunting. No strings attached.
But UBI is just the starting point. Other concepts being explored:
- Automation Dividends: What if citizens received payouts from the profits generated by automation, just like shareholders?
- Universal Basic Services: Instead of—or alongside—cash, people could receive free access to essentials like housing, food, education, and healthcare.
- Non-Economic Jobs: Think community roles, creative work, caregiving—not paid in cash but recognized as important and supported through public funding.
In this possible future, the economy serves human needs, not the other way around.
But Who Owns the Robots?
Here’s the part economists are still arguing about: Who will actually own the machines, the AI models, and the infrastructure running them?
Right now, most automation is developed by tech companies backed by private capital. If ownership stays concentrated, the wealth generated by these tools could just deepen inequality. But if systems are publicly owned—or at least regulated to share profits—then there’s a shot at building a more equitable society.
It’s not just policy. It’s politics.
What Might Day-to-Day Life Look Like?
When nearly everyone is out of traditional work, life will need a new rhythm.
You might spend your time:
- Taking care of family or neighbors
- Creating art, music, or media
- Volunteering in local projects
- Learning, teaching, exploring interests
With economic pressure off your back, time becomes the currency. Not everyone agrees this will automatically be fulfilling—it depends a lot on community structure, education, and culture—but it opens space to rethink what a “productive life” really means.
So What’s Next?
It’s tempting to focus only on the job losses. But that’s just one part of the story. The harder, more interesting challenge is figuring out how to design a society where people have purpose, resources, and support—without needing to prove economic value.
Here’s what probably lies ahead:
- Fewer traditional jobs
- Universal income or services becoming common
- Greater focus on meaning, contribution, and ownership
- Possibly, the biggest social shift since the Industrial Revolution
Some parts of this sound scary. Others sound like potential breakthroughs. Either way, it’s not a fantasy anymore. It’s a fast-approaching future—and we all have a stake in shaping it.
Keywords: post-work economy, Universal Basic Income, automation, AI and jobs, future of work, automation dividends, societal impact of AI, labor displacement, robot ownership, UBI rollout
